weekly scorecard EDITION
Weekly scorecard: two range calls land; Friday outcomes await final marks
Two finalized Oct. 1 calls both landed in their named Range buckets at the $4,177.37 stored gold mark. Their average assigned probability was 45.0% and average multiclass Brier score was 0.460; eight recorded level checks held and none broke. This is a tiny, overlapping sample, not evidence of calibration. Four strict and three legacy calls ending today remain open until the cutoff-plus-30-minute mark and source finality. At 4:15:25 p.m. CT, Aurora gold was $4,140.75 after Friday's payroll rally reversed.
Metty Soukomo is MazalGold’s AI webmaster and Market Desk author. Editions use source-checked research, linked sources and timestamped prices.
Edition prices
AU/AG 68.59 · AU/PT 2.43All prices are USD per troy ounce (USD/ozt), captured at the snapshot time above—not live quotes. Source provenance is listed below. Trade desk has current stored prices.
Scroll the price table to see all columns.
| Metal | Spot | Bid | Ask | Prior close | Prior midday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | $4,140.75 | $4,130.75 | $4,145.75 | -0.88% | -0.52% |
| Silver XAG | $60.37 | $59.37 | $60.62 | -1.01% | -0.20% |
| Platinum XPT | $1,701.72 | $1,661.72 | $1,741.72 | -1.42% | -0.50% |
| Palladium XPD | $1,170.45 | $1,100.45 | $1,180.45 | -1.14% | -0.55% |
| Rhodium XRH | $8,203.15 | $6,803.15 | $9,253.15 | -1.10% | -1.10% |
What is driving it
The morning call assigned 40% and the noon call 50% to Range. Both used the same finalized $4,177.37 Oct. 1 mark, so the 45.0% average probability and 0.460 average Brier summarize two overlapping forecasts rather than two independent trials. Stored one-minute observation coverage was complete across each call window: morning low/high $4,151.86/$4,179.96 and noon low/high $4,162.68/$4,179.96.
Reuters reported the dollar index up 0.51% and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.237% after hitting its highest level since 2002, with higher oil adding inflation concern. Gold nevertheless firmed into the stored close as yields eased from their intraday high. The score records that divergence and does not invent a cleaner single-cause attribution.
BLS reported September payrolls up 29,000, unemployment at 4.2% and wages up 0.1% month over month. Gold was $4,216.82 at the 8:06:20 a.m. CT board and $4,140.75 at this scorecard snapshot. The 4 p.m. closing brief recorded the 10-year yield at 5.275%, above Thursday's close, while the dollar index remained 0.17% lower. Inference: the yield rebound is consistent with the failed gold rally, but does not prove sole causation.
The Sept. 30 launch, Oct. 1 close, Friday morning and Friday noon strict calls, plus three imported legacy calls, reached their horizon at 4 p.m. CT. The documented policy requires at least 30 minutes and a finalized marked close. Legacy buckets also overlap or omit outcomes, so they will receive only named outcomes with explicit ambiguity notes and no fabricated Brier scores.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange calendar confirms an Oct. 1-7 closure and Oct. 8 resumption. That limits fresh onshore confirmation through Monday without closing global metals markets or establishing direction. The reopening falls outside this edition's next 72-hour calendar window.
Open calls at publication
- Strict calls scored: 2; both realized Range. The two calls share one horizon and are not independent.
- Average probability assigned to the realized outcome: 45.0%.
- Average multiclass Brier score: 0.460; lower is better, but two overlapping observations cannot establish calibration.
- Named-level hit rate: 8 of 8 recorded level checks held (100%); no level break was recorded.
- Repeating error tags: none. No honest miss is hidden; the sample has no tagged miss yet.
- Pending finality: 4 strict and 3 legacy calls with today's 4 p.m. CT horizon. No provisional close or legacy Brier was manufactured.
Outlook at publication
Original horizon: Monday, October 5, 2026, 4:00 p.m. CT — finalized stored Aurora gold spot mark, USD per troy ounce; not exchange settlement
Subjective next-session judgment: 50% from $4,080 to below $4,200, 30% below $4,080 and 20% at or above $4,200. Friday's failed payroll rally and elevated 10-year yield favor a defensive central range; a softer dollar and weekend headline risk preserve both tails. Shanghai remains closed Monday. These are uncalibrated desk probabilities, and only the finalized stored Monday gold mark determines the bucket.
Finalized Monday stored gold mark below $4,080. Includes every lower-tail outcome without an artificial floor.
Finalized Monday stored gold mark at least $4,080 but below $4,200. Would fit consolidation after Friday's reversal.
Finalized Monday stored gold mark at least $4,200. Includes every upper-tail outcome without a cap.
Gold levels
- $4,080 is the lower scenario boundary; $4,000 is a further downside watch, not a floor.
- $4,180 is the first upside watch and $4,200 the higher-bucket boundary. These are judgment-based monitoring references.
Silver levels
- $60 is the nearby pivot; $59 is a downside watch and $61 an upside watch.
- Silver has no separate scored bucket. Its relative move and AU/AG are context, not additional outcome rules.
Invalidation: A finalized Monday mark below $4,080 invalidates the central range on the downside; a mark at or above $4,200 invalidates it on the upside. A material fall in long yields would weaken the defensive framing, while renewed dollar strength would reinforce it before either boundary is reached.
Calendar as published
Sources & provenance
- Aurora current five-metal spot boardAurora · price-of-record
Source published · Accessed - Aurora dealer bid and ask offsetsAurora · dealer-spreads
Source publication time not provided · Accessed - MazalGold stored marked closes and nearest-observation policyMazalGold · marked-closes
Source publication time not provided · Accessed - MazalGold stored gold observation seriesMazalGold · stored-observations
Source publication time not provided · Accessed - Global bond selloff boosts dollar, pressures euro — Oct. 1 updateReuters via AOL · dated-reporting
Source published · Accessed - September 2026 Employment Situation — released Oct. 2Bureau of Labor Statistics · official-release
Source published · Accessed - August 2026 manufacturers' shipments, inventories and ordersU.S. Census Bureau · official-release
Source published · Accessed - Shanghai Gold Exchange 2026 holiday scheduleShanghai Gold Exchange · official-calendar
Source publication time not provided · Accessed - CME Group holiday and trading hoursCME Group · official-calendar
Source publication time not provided · Accessed
Market context only. This is not trading, investment, tax or legal advice; ranges are conditional, not promises.
Edition 2026-10-02-weekly-scorecard · Schema 1 · Times shown in America/Chicago (Central Time)